EU Challenges in the 21st Century

Rubén Ruiz

How will be the European Union in 2020 or 2030? In a changing world which tends towards greater plurality of centres of power, the growing power of groups of countries to the detriment of the sovereign state, European citizens will need the global solutions of the EU. There will be more Europe and more people will be identified with the European Union. To the outside world, the EU has to remain committed to "soft power", and the European External Action Service should serve to ensure coherence and effectiveness of EU foreign policy.

The European Union, with only 7% of world population, produces about 25% of the world's wealth, more than the U.S., China twice and five times more than India. The EU is also the largest donor for development. Although the EU has been criticized for the lack of foreign policy role, it has some successes including which may be cited for example the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo after Pristina's declaration of independence, or sanctions of the Union to Iran or Libya. All this is what let see to the outside world a united Europe, showing the success of "soft power" in Europe, although, exceptionally, as in the present case of Libya, "soft power" has to be supported by "hard power".

The EU needs, however, to give substance to the strategic foreign policy. It needs a global vision that describes the European values, the possibility of future energy partners, the scenarios of action, etc. The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) should not be an extension of national foreign policies, nor present the EU foreign policy as if it were the 28^th State of the Union. In addition, the institutional balance is difficult to maintain without a clear definition of responsibilities between the President of the European Council, the President of the Commission and the High Representative.

The changes that are taking place in the world in recent months show there is nothing certain in the future. For this reason, it's difficult to foresee how the world and the EU will be in 2020 or 2030, and the weight it will have as a global player. However, some tendencies could be foreseen. Before the global risks that affect us all, the world tends to a global citizenship and many movements will support it. The interdependence between states and regions will be stronger. New centres of power will continue emerging, and the rise of middle powers will make evident this plurality. Therefore, international wealth will be more distributed. We cannot forget the "Asianization" of economy. There will not be a world where the state has the power, but it will be a polycentric world, where regions, cities, networks and movements (political, economic, social ...) will gain prominence. This interdependence will lead to a global society. There will be less poverty, but new poor. Africa will reduce poverty, but will increase problems of marginalization and the risks on metropolitan areas. Therefore, before this global scenario, a need for greater global regulation (environmental, economic, etc.) will be present. But at the same time, there will be more resistance to it. And finally, power of citizens, individual power and wishes of more opportunities in society will increase.

Before this scene, the European Union will be under pressure from citizens on the need to solve their daily problems. This will bring the EU closer to citizens and therefore there will be more Europe. The Union advances in times of crisis (political or economic). Looking at the recent past, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crisis of the 90’s or the Yugoslav wars, major advances have followed the Union: the Economic and Monetary Union, the Treaty of Maastricht (and CFSP) and the Treaty of Amsterdam. Therefore, the current situation in the southern Mediterranean shore offers a unique opportunity for the EU to put into practice the instruments of the Lisbon Treaty in terms of foreign policy.

The European External Action Service (EEAS) should serve to ensure consistency and effectiveness of European foreign policy, but avoiding the risk of using the EEAS in order to increase the national leadership. The EEAS has the actors and the tools, but lacks a clear strategy in the medium and long term. A policy toward security and defence strategy consists on objectives and capabilities. Foreign policy must be the first step in the Union if it wants to further develop its own policy on security and defence, for which the objectives should be determined depending on the capabilities and the resources available to the EU.

We need more Europe. The voice of the European Union should be heard in the world, but must be a single voice that unites all the European partners. The interest and admiration for European integration raises the defence of our values ​​and principles. In addition, the weight, power and influence at any level that has and will have the EU, makes clear the idea that betting on the European Union means betting on our future.